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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues surpassed expectations: Many investors were fretted that as stocks plunged, this recession would also be shown in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the necessary financial objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
The main ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments handled by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 various ETFs, supplying exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and information technology possessions. The ETF offers exposure to a range of sectors, allowing you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.