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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the marketplace has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes surpassed expectations: Numerous financiers were worried that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be shown in their earnings report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, prior to the essential economic objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally occur prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to weaken. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 different ETFs, supplying direct exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.