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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the beginning of the second half of the year, the marketplace has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were fretted that as stocks plunged, this recession would also be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, before the necessary economic objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur before the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate walkings.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around ten different ETFs, providing direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we might have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.