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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues surpassed expectations: Many investors were worried that as stocks dropped, this slump would likewise be reflected in their revenues report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, before the necessary economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has actually certainly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur before the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to damage. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.