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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the hypothetical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Many financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be shown in their profits report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place too soon, prior to the necessary economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has actually indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to damage. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately ten different ETFs, offering exposure to various sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.