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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues went beyond expectations: Many financiers were fretted that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be shown in their revenues report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, before the required economic objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest walkings.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.