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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However considering that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Lots of financiers were fretted that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, prior to the necessary economic objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest walkings.
The primary ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 different ETFs, offering direct exposure to various sectors of the marketplace, with the main concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and information technology assets. The ETF uses direct exposure to a series of sectors, enabling you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.