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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, before the required economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which normally occur prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History indicates that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest walkings.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 different ETFs, providing direct exposure to various sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.