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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But given that the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Lots of financiers were stressed that as stocks dropped, this decline would also be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, prior to the necessary financial objectives have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has actually certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur before the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The main ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 various ETFs, supplying exposure to various sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and infotech properties. The ETF uses exposure to a series of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.