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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the start of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes went beyond expectations: Many investors were fretted that as stocks dropped, this slump would also be shown in their profits report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place too soon, before the necessary financial objectives have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has certainly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History suggests that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately ten different ETFs, offering exposure to different sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.